Chris Christie’s surprising move on gay marriage– and what it means for 2016 and the GOP

On Monday New Jersey Governor Chris Christie dropped an appeal of a federal court ruling that stated New Jersey must allow same-sex couples to marry. The move surprised many on the left, including marriage equality advocates, who had seen and heard the governor speak out on a variety of occasions about his opposition to same-sex marriage. It also provoked buzz in right wing circles, as Christie’s decision to “endorse” an issue considered toxic for any potential presidential candidate seeking the 2016 Republican Party nomination was definitely a political risk, especially keeping in mind the conservative base he’ll have to appeal to in the primaries should he run in 2016.

But this may say more about the GOP brand at large than Christie as it’s potential banner man.

Put bluntly, Chris Christie is a politician who knows how to win a popularity contest. First elected in 2009 as a Republican in the deep-blue state of New Jersey, Christie has emerged as one of the shrewdest politicians of our time. He currently holds a commanding 30+ point lead in his re-election bid for governor over State Senator Barbara Buono, and appears on his way to an easy victory. Christie, one of the presumed front-runners for the Republican nomination in 2016, would not have made the public announcement that he was dropping his appeal of the ruling allowing gay marriages in his home state of New Jersey if he thought it would be a liability. In fact, he is gambling that it will be the total opposite; a key decision that he can point to in a general election.

The New Jersey Governor had two choices here: he could drop the appeal on the day same-sex couples said their vows for the first time in New Jersey (in the overwhelmingly welcoming arms of Senator-elect Cory Booker), or he could wait out a legal fight in which he claimed he did not think he had a chance to win upon further review. Rather than take the legal loss, and the press of a potentially more embarrassing national defeat, he chose to withdraw his appeal now at a time when the GOP finds itself in search of a “moderate” voice. (Yes, the words “moderate” and “Republican” can live in the same sentence.)

Christie has determined that there is a safe space in which to tacitly endorse marriage equality while simultaneously announcing his moral opposition. Despite the fact that Christie’s tangible political record shows his opposition to gay marriage (including a veto of same-sex marriage legislation in the state), the governor and his political advisers know the decision they made on Monday will stick. ​

But here’s the greater question here: what does Christie’s political gamble mean for the greater marriage equality movement?

Those cheering the wave of marriage equality progress being made across the country are likely to hit an apex in passing gay marriage through state legislatures—which is to say marriage will only be legalized in some states, but deep red-states like Louisiana and Mississippi will probably not follow the national trend. That, of course, surprises exactly no one. But if the Christie legal analysis is correct and there is “no ambiguity” in New Jersey’s lawsuit on same-sex marriage, it appears lawsuits to overturn marriage bans could be an effective way for advocates to win. In fact, this strategy may be one of the only short-term ways forward in states where gay marriage proponents have the steepest climbs. ​

Make no mistake, this decision is more or a less a bet being made by Christie and his advisers and it could very well backfire. An endorsement of gay marriage — even one as subtle as just not opposing it — could remain a non-starter for GOP primary voters who tend to be more conservative.

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